Sunday, 7 December 2014

Good Choices and Bad Choices

The rear entrance to the British Museum -
still pretty imposing, with the stone lions and all!

Life has a lot of "real" choices in it.
Sometimes we would like to do the "right" thing, but it is just too expensive!

Last weekend, we (Anna, Katya, and myself) wanted to visit the British Museum in the centre of London.

So, given that we live (according to Google Street Maps) about 42 miles away, walking is out, and, to be honest, it is a bit far for us to cycle! I did cycle 100 miles in a day in the Summer, but that is the furthest I have ever been, and it took me all day! For the keen, however, Google estimates you CAN walk it in a bit more than 13 hours each way (!), and cycle it in 3 hours 35 each way, although I suspect that their "cyclist" gets up the climb to cross the Chilterns a lot faster than I do (!) With a stop for a rest and a break half-way, I guess I might be able to do it on my bike in 4 1/2 to 5 hours each way, but I don't think Anna and Katya could manage this distance yet. My bike, although cheap, still cost to build more than their two bikes put together, and their bikes are optimised for urban utility, rather than "audax"!

The "realistic" options for us were therefore car, train, or bus.

I didn't seriously explore the bus route, as, from here, it is rather a multi-stage journey.
I know there is a bus from Aylesbury to Watford, and there is a bus from Watford to Brent Cross (North-West London), and I have even used this Watford to Brent Cross bus route once, but then it would be at least one more bus into the centre - probably to Trafalgar Square. The Aylesbury to watford bus is not exactly quick, taking an hour or so for that route, as it stops in a lot of places on the way. Iirc, the expected jouney time is about an hour. The Watford to Brent Cross route also stops a lot, and takes about an hour. The last part of the route will probably also take that sort of time as well, as it is likely to have a lot of stops on the way into London. So we can say it is at least three hours for the bus "option", plus 30 minutes at our end to walk to the bus station and get tickets, with a bit of time to spare in case there is a queue. It is likely to be another 30 minutes at the other end to get from Trafalgar Square to the British Museum on foot, what with it being 14 years since I left London, and 20-odd years since I used to spend a lot of time in the central part!
So I estimate that the bus option would be about 4 hours EACH WAY.

Now the train option, which I explored in depth.
There is a train from Aylesbury to Marylebone Station in London, with 2 or 3 an hour. the trip takes a bit more than an hour.
Then we would have to get a "Tube"/Subway/Metro train to a station nearer to the Museum.
Never mind the routing that Google maps likes - for me, the best route would be to walk from Marylebone to Baker Street (not as far as it looks on the "Tube" map, which is schematic, rather than geographical!), then catch the "Tube" to Euston Square, then walk down and across, and into the rear entrance to the British Museum.
Google estimates that their routing would take between 1 hr 30 mins and 1 hr 48 mins. My routing probably takes the same sort of time.
Then there is the time from our house to the train station in Aylesbury - it is near the bus station, so I will add on 30 minutes for that.
So that is (rounded off)  a total of 2 - 2 1/4 hours by train each way.

Now the least "green" option.
What if we simply just drove?
Google Maps suggests a time of just over an hour - but, remember I used to live in London, and I know what the traffic is like (!). So I estimated about 1 hour 30 minutes for a drive (given that we usually drive at 10 - 15 mph or so BELOW the speed limit on major roads - that's us, just keeping up with the trucks, rather than screaming down the outside lane!) that would get us there for about 10 am (when the Museum opens), so we actually avoid the bulk of the traffic by being earlier. (remember, this was a weekend, not a weekday trip, so the "usual" 9 am "rush hour" doesn't apply!)

What then of cost?

Having ruled out walking, cycling, and bus, all on the grounds of journey time, that left car and train.
So how much is a ticket for 2 adults and a child to London from Aylesbury, including a permit to use the Tube (Subway/Metro) once we arrive in London?
Our train route is run by Chiltern Railways, and runs pretty reliable trains - all in all, it is a highly regarded train company. German-owned, if that means anything!
The "regular" weekend fare is £58 ($92.80), but as there are three of us, we can get a family group ticket for £45.90 ($73.44)

And driving?
Parking, if you get there early enough on a Sunday morning (before it all fills up!) is "free" in the streets arounf the Museum.
If you miss the surface parking spaces, there is an underground car park below a small-ish nearby shopping centre, where 4 to 24 hours (any day of the week) costs £19.30 ($30.88)
Central London has a "congestion charge"vehicle tax of £11.50 ($18.40) per day for casual visitors, but that only applies in the week, and in the day, not after 6pm in the evening, and not at all at the weekend,
The fuel cost varies depending on how much traffic you get, and how much inefficient start-stop driving you do.
Three is also the matter of how you calculate your costs - once you own a car (a big expenditure), the "marginal cost" of one extra trip isn't as much as the costs of the car divided by the total number of miles you do - most of those costs would still be similar (insurance, depreciation, parts and servicing, tax, safety test, etc. etc.). We actually average (our car has a fuel computer) a bit more than 60 mpg (Imperial gallon) that's circa 50 mpg (US gallon), and the route to London is fast dual carriageway (divided highway) then motorway (expressway), then major urban road to London Zoo, then minor roads in the park, then major urban road, then turn right, go down to blocks, and voila! Off-peak, we probably still manage about our average, as we are well above it on the fast sections at the start (I tend to drive at 55-60 mph, rather than the 70 mph speed limit on such roads).
Somewhere in the region of 20p per mile covers the "marginal cost" fuel and wear-and tear, and if we round up the mileage a bit to allow for any detours, and come to a figure of 100 miles (rather than Google Map's figure of about 85 miles), we still only get £20 ($32) for driving.
It is hard for public transport to compete with "free" parking
So, what did we do?

We drove.
It took us about 1 hour 15 minutes to get there, and about 2 hours to get back.
We parked "free" within 5 minutes walk of the rear of the Museum - we actually parked in Russell Square.
Russell Square is very close to the British Museum -
turn left for the "main" entrance, and turn right for the
"rear" entrance.
Had we made the journey on a weekday morning, we may well have taken the train.
But on a Sunday morning, the economics means that even for someone wanting to do the "right" thing, the car is a hard proposition to argue with!

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